People's Republic of China - Poultry and Products Annual - 2011
Broiler meat production in 2012 will continue modest growth, rising nearly four per cent to 13.8 million metric tons (MMT) from an estimated 13.2MMT this year, according to the latest GAIN Report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service.
Executive Summary
FAS Beijing (Post) forecasts China’s broiler meat production will continue higher, rising nearly five per cent to 13.8 million metric tons (MMT) from an estimated 13.2 MMT in the previous year. Rising broiler meat prices are more than offsetting still high feed costs.
Total poultry production in 2012, including goose and duck production, is forecast to account for 23 per cent of Chinese total meat production.
Broiler meat imports in 2012 (not including chicken claws) are forecast to fall 13 per cent to 200,000 metric tons (MT) following an estimated 20 per cent decline in 2011 due primarily to sharply lower imports from the United States resulted from China’s measures of anti-dumping duties (AD) beginning February 2010 and countervailing duties (CVD) in August 2010 on US broiler product exports to China. These measures are expected to continue into 2012. Chicken claws will continue to dominate overall broiler meat imports with chicken wings accounting for most of the remainder. So far, higher shipments from South America have not completely offset reduced US shipments to China.
China’s broiler meat exports in 2012 are forecast to increase over nine per cent to 445,000 MT, following an eight per cent increase in the previous year. Consumer demand in Japan and Hong Kong has been particularly brisk in 2011, and industry contacts are expecting continued higher sales in 2012.
Broiler Meat Total poultry production in 2012, including goose and duck production, is forecast to account for 23 per cent of Chinese total meat production.
Broiler meat imports in 2012 (not including chicken claws) are forecast to fall 13 per cent to 200,000 metric tons (MT) following an estimated 20 per cent decline in 2011 due primarily to sharply lower imports from the United States resulted from China’s measures of anti-dumping duties (AD) beginning February 2010 and countervailing duties (CVD) in August 2010 on US broiler product exports to China. These measures are expected to continue into 2012. Chicken claws will continue to dominate overall broiler meat imports with chicken wings accounting for most of the remainder. So far, higher shipments from South America have not completely offset reduced US shipments to China.
China’s broiler meat exports in 2012 are forecast to increase over nine per cent to 445,000 MT, following an eight per cent increase in the previous year. Consumer demand in Japan and Hong Kong has been particularly brisk in 2011, and industry contacts are expecting continued higher sales in 2012.
Broiler Production in 2012 will continue higher
Broiler meat output is expected to jump nearly five per cent in 2012 to 13.8 MMT, following another five per cent increase in 2011. Including duck and goose, total Chinese poultry meat production will also rise five per cent to 18.7 MMT. Fueled by strong demand, Chinese broiler meat output growth is outpacing all other meats in 2011. Considerably higher pork prices in 2011, combined with expected lower broiler meat imports in 2012, are helping to fuel rising broiler meat production. High prices for pork are expected to continue into 2012.In July 2011, the price of broiler meat on average was $2,737 (RMB17,490) per MT, up 24 per cent from the same month a year ago. Strong pricing and demand for local chicken is offsetting continued high feed prices and encouraging producers to expand placements. Compared to red meat and feed ratios (8:1 for beef and 3:1 for pork), broiler meat is the most efficient at just over 2.5:1, thus keeping broiler producer feed costs relatively low. Pork prices are a major driver in the domestic meat market as pork accounts for most Chinese meat consumption. Record high pork prices this year have helped push broiler meat price to its highest level in the last four years. Reduced imports from the United States following China’s implementation of AD and CV duties in 2010 are also helping to boost local prices.
Chinese broiler meat production is being supported by lower rates of reported disease, as China’s continued shift toward larger-sized and more standardized commercial production boosts disease control. These farms raise broilers in isolated facilities, thus reducing risks of spreading highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), China’s greatest avian disease threat affecting mostly backyard and other small operations. The table below reveals the number of larger operations is expanding while the number of small-sized operations continues to shrink. While still a tiny share of total broiler farms, larger operations now account for a significant share of China’s poultry meat output and this continues to rise.
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