how is poultry market 2012?

how is poultry market 2012?

Perspectives on Poultry World Markets 2011-2012

According to the projections of OECD-FAO, agricultural production is expected to increase in the short term, assuming normal weather, as a result of an expected supply response to current high prices.

The global agricultural projections for 2010-2020

Commodity prices should fall from the highs of early 2011, but in real terms are projected to average up to 20 per cent higher for cereals (maize) and up to 30 per cent for meats (poultry), over the 2011-2020 period compared to the last decade.
 

Global meat consumption

Presently, around 16 per cent of global meat consumption takes place in the EU-27. The global demand for proteins from animal products is projected to increase by more than 50 per cent by 2030, compared to that of 2000, due to population growth and increasing wealth especially in developing countries. The trend is expected to continue but will be influenced by environmental, economic and political developments.

Market situation for meat

The meat sector is adjusting to the supply and demand imbalances in the feed sector of the past three years. Faced with high production costs, restricted access to credit, high energy costs the supply of poultry meat responded more quickly to the higher demand, and as a result, prices recovered gradually.

Nominal prices for poultry are expected to be 16 per cent higher by 2020 compared to the base period 2008-2010. In real terms, all meat prices are expected to remain firm and on a higher plateau for the 2010-2020 period as to compensate the higher feed and energy costs. 

World meat prices for poultry per period and country
Period/Country		Avg 2008-2010	2011	2020
EU-27	USD/t pw(1)	2.456	2.640	2.614
Brazil	USD/t rtc(2)	1.090	1.261	1.266
USA	USD/t rtc(3)	1.062	1.153	1.250

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chicken market march 2012

chicken market march 2012

UK poultry sector under-performing in EU market

British poultry businesses need greater market clout and a more international outlook to thrive, as Rhian Price reports

The UK poultry industry needs to become more efficient if it is to compete in a consolidating domestic market, according to analysts at Dutch bank, Rabobank.

In its recent report into the industry's future competitiveness, it says the current structure of the main integrators is ineffective when it comes to competing with powerful British supermarkets.

Furthermore, despite operating in one of the highest value-added markets in the EU, the British poultry industry has faced falling profit margins due to high feed prices, limited volume growth and oversupply.

On the demand side, Rabobank says the UK poultry market is close to its maximum absorption level, with no rise in per capita consumption. What growth there is stems from population expansion alone.

The report also says the industry has failed to capitalise on its strengthened market position, associated with the depreciation of sterling and new marketing standards, which prohibits the use of frozen poultry in fresh processed food products.

"The UK poultry industry is not well-known for having an efficient value chain, which is one reason why (foreign) exporters are still able to maintain market competitiveness despite the pound sterling depreciation," it explains.

And, while UK consumers are prepared to buy high-quality products at premium prices, many of these can also be outsourced to international suppliers for less money.

Rabobank therefore encourages further internationalisation into the growing north-western European market.

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china - poultry and products market 2011

china - poultry and products market 2011

People's Republic of China - Poultry and Products Annual - 2011

Broiler meat production in 2012 will continue modest growth, rising nearly four per cent to 13.8 million metric tons (MMT) from an estimated 13.2MMT this year, according to the latest GAIN Report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service.

Executive Summary

FAS Beijing (Post) forecasts China’s broiler meat production will continue higher, rising nearly five per cent to 13.8 million metric tons (MMT) from an estimated 13.2 MMT in the previous year. Rising broiler meat prices are more than offsetting still high feed costs.

Total poultry production in 2012, including goose and duck production, is forecast to account for 23 per cent of Chinese total meat production.

Broiler meat imports in 2012 (not including chicken claws) are forecast to fall 13 per cent to 200,000 metric tons (MT) following an estimated 20 per cent decline in 2011 due primarily to sharply lower imports from the United States resulted from China’s measures of anti-dumping duties (AD) beginning February 2010 and countervailing duties (CVD) in August 2010 on US broiler product exports to China. These measures are expected to continue into 2012. Chicken claws will continue to dominate overall broiler meat imports with chicken wings accounting for most of the remainder. So far, higher shipments from South America have not completely offset reduced US shipments to China.

China’s broiler meat exports in 2012 are forecast to increase over nine per cent to 445,000 MT, following an eight per cent increase in the previous year. Consumer demand in Japan and Hong Kong has been particularly brisk in 2011, and industry contacts are expecting continued higher sales in 2012.

Broiler Meat

Broiler Production in 2012 will continue higher

 Broiler meat output is expected to jump nearly five per cent in 2012 to 13.8 MMT, following another five per cent increase in 2011. Including duck and goose, total Chinese poultry meat production will also rise five per cent to 18.7 MMT. Fueled by strong demand, Chinese broiler meat output growth is outpacing all other meats in 2011. Considerably higher pork prices in 2011, combined with expected lower broiler meat imports in 2012, are helping to fuel rising broiler meat production. High prices for pork are expected to continue into 2012.

In July 2011, the price of broiler meat on average was $2,737 (RMB17,490) per MT, up 24 per cent from the same month a year ago. Strong pricing and demand for local chicken is offsetting continued high feed prices and encouraging producers to expand placements. Compared to red meat and feed ratios (8:1 for beef and 3:1 for pork), broiler meat is the most efficient at just over 2.5:1, thus keeping broiler producer feed costs relatively low. Pork prices are a major driver in the domestic meat market as pork accounts for most Chinese meat consumption. Record high pork prices this year have helped push broiler meat price to its highest level in the last four years. Reduced imports from the United States following China’s implementation of AD and CV duties in 2010 are also helping to boost local prices.

Chinese broiler meat production is being supported by lower rates of reported disease, as China’s continued shift toward larger-sized and more standardized commercial production boosts disease control. These farms raise broilers in isolated facilities, thus reducing risks of spreading highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), China’s greatest avian disease threat affecting mostly backyard and other small operations. The table below reveals the number of larger operations is expanding while the number of small-sized operations continues to shrink. While still a tiny share of total broiler farms, larger operations now account for a significant share of China’s poultry meat output and this continues to rise.


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